Confirmation Bias

One of the most important things that impacts us in personal, professional, and financial life is an effect called confirmation bias. Put more simply, this is a tendency for people to only seek out information that confirms what they already think. In many cases, people will examine the same information and come to wildly different conclusions because of their internal biases. Naturally, this makes objective thought and analysis extremely difficult to perform since we are not always the best judge of ourselves.

This effect becomes especially dangerous when it enters the financial arena. When evaluating investment strategies, many people (such as Robert Merton and Myron Scholes of Long-Term Capital Management) fail to examine possibilities that lay outside of their theory. Many hedge funds and derivatives traders create highly complex formula’s based on many assumptions that are usually true, but not always true. These financial models typically use large amounts of leverage, and are prone to tremendous losses if market movements do not match the model assumptions. Another iteration of this self-delusion is the tremendous run-up in housing prices that was based on the assumption home prices would never go down. There was ample evidence to indicate that housing prices could not increase forever, but it was completely ignored in favor of self-delusion by the government agencies, financial institutions, and borrowers who perpetuated the financial crisis.

The impact of confirmation bias also enters the political sphere on a regular basis. There are Nobel laureate economists in favor of higher taxes who claim to have evidence in support of their position and Nobel laureate economists in favor of lower taxes who also have evidence in support of their claim. When the government funds research studies, it is not surprising that the results of the study almost always come back confirming the original theory or hypothesis. Other ways that this phenomenon works its way into the political landscape is through metrics that are impossible to prove or disprove. One of the most famous is an ambiguous employment metric of “jobs created or saves”. It is impossible to objectively define a “saved” job, so the intellectual delusion is perpetuated.

The confirmation bias effect has even found its way into the scientific domain, as demonstrated most prominently in the climate science movement. What used to be called “global warming” has now been changed “climate change”. This makes every observation of temperature a “confirmation” of the hypothesis since the climate by its very nature is always changing. It should not come as any sort of surprise that the so-called “consensus” concerning climate change was completely fictional. It only resulted from suppressing voices of dissent and stifling debate so that the self-delusion of confirmation bias could continue without restraint. If the science was so strong, then it should be able to withstand a rigorous debate. If the proponents of the theory are not willing to debate, then it stands to reason that the science is not very strong.

In the end, it is and always will be extremely difficult to be objective. As astute individuals, we must learn to recognize the impacts of confirmation bias in ourselves and in the world around us. Since most of us do not possess the ability to change the world, we must squarely focus on the things that we do have the power to change… namely ourselves. When making an important decision, it is imperative to ‘step back’ and determine whether there is something we haven’t thought of that could squash our plans. By actively avoiding the bias of confirmation, it will help us to make more informed decisions and live a more fulfilled life.

Alternative Ideas for American Economic Development

The global financial crisis has clearly illustrated that there is a serious vacuum of ideas on what to do next as a civilization. Majority of the public senses (on various levels) that key leaderships of many Western states do not offer much more beyond printing more money, socially brutal austerity, etc. Playing for time and looting are not solid ideas and everybody knows it. This inevitably opens up society to ideas from below which will eventually result in part of the elite siding with these ideas to co-opt them and ride them to power.

In United States, we saw the libertarian critique meme and the reactionary “going back to FDR policies” meme rapidly become dominant online over the last 2 years. Collapsist and neofeudalism memes are also about to become dominant. Collapsism in particular forces future oriented thought. The non-Internet world is quickly following behind since it took researchers a year or so to educate themselves about the fraud that caused the crisis, to put their books out, and then another few months for people to read the books. Various socially visible pundits can now defer to books as authoritative sources in speaking up. The market for new type of demagogy (talk radio being the old type) is nowhere near to being saturated.

This awakening resembles a sort of a popular front in the making since people from diverse ideological backgrounds are creating a consensus of what they are against (federal reserve corruption, military eating most resources, financial oligarchy and its personal lawyer/butler [US congress]). A marriage of convenience of this sort is usually created when all other options are exhausted and it will split into petty infighting once the current regime is changed.

All the accelerating muck racking and massive corruption exposures going on currently will begin to create a dissident critical mass in the near future. This is due to the gently exponential curve that is word of mouth communication and most importantly due to some elites sensing that popular sentiment now allows certain things to be safely discussed on a national level. Like in a jury herd dynamic, a minority of consistent and tireless individuals can swing the entire group whether at elite level, the level of a bar or church, or national level. The vacuum of workable ideas in leadership allows such informational waves to spread and take hold rapidly. It may have taken Christianity 300 years to become a dominant meme but with present communication technology, informational “viruses” can do the trick in just years.

In interesting times like these, small but very narrative consistent groups have disproportionate amount of influence. Notice how quickly Ron Paul’s faction went from being an ignored laughing stock to being a respected dissident movement (the mere fact that some oligarchs partially co-opted it with funding demonstrates level of genuine popular support). The great budding coalition of groups who usually don’t want anything to do with one another (but who realize they got a common enemy) is gaining strength by the week. The awakening process does not even need to take hold of most people. A society historically needs maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of people to substantially switch their world view in order for real transition to start happening. 1/3 of the population can always be counted on to defend status quo to the last while 1/3 can be counted on to be an apathetic mushy middle that joins whoever seems to be winning or is more popular.

How will ideas be judged, what determines which will win out?

Market of ideas is limited by two things.

1) Practicality of an idea. This means the degree to which an idea is compatible with unfolding social and physical dynamics of human civilization (can’t have genuine feudalism, monarchies, or theocracies in 21st century with hundreds of millions of educated people). In a way, the strongest idea is one which is predictive of where we’re pretty much headed anyway. This criteria can be said to be desirability of the good (functionality determining desirability).

2) How quickly it can be internalized by the public at large. If one needs to read too many books to understand and accept an idea, then it really is not that great. An idea having been popular previously at some point in history greatly helps with this. This criteria can be said to be the knowledgeableness of the buyer to determine which good is desirable.

So what’s on the market presently?

I am going to focus on United States since in many ways the problems of United States show to the world the problems that they themselves will face very soon. The ideas that the American people adapt to resurrect themselves will eventually (if not immediately) be influential on a planetary scale after a couple of decades. The following are listed in no particular order of importance.

a) Reactionary “going back to FDR style” Keynesian monetarism, sound money, and rapid infrastructural development

b) Reactionary “going back to the John Quincy Adams style” American credit system, sound money, and rapid infrastructural development

c) Reactionary “going back to industrial robber baron style” brief and unstable period of something resembling what the libertarian faction wants. Some haphazard and rapid ego driven infrastructural development.

d) American version of Leninist New Economic Policy and very rapid infrastructural development

e) Emulation of Chinese style oligarchic dictatorship and rapid infrastructural development

f) Post-monetarist energy accounting Technocracy and very rapid infrastructural development

SPOILER ALERT:

It’ll end up being f) eventually but not before one or more of the others are torturously tried, muddled through, combined, and recombined. In effect, a)-e) are a connecting bridge of experimentation that will make f) possible in due time. Some areas of the country and the world may experience de facto libertarian c) environment due to only the local oligarchs having developmental resources (see Abramovich in his post as governor of Chukotka). Such frightful old school oligarchy should not really spread too quickly before rapid backlash into other choices. There is also the matter of deflation stifling its development. Therefore the libertarian faction is primarily useful as a vibrant “rural power” part of the popular front. They will quickly fade as America’s socioeconomic failure discredits capitalism (fairly or unfairly) in the eyes of humanity at large.

Emulation of Chinese police state e) and industrial worker exploitation may be preferred by one wing of American oligarchy (while the other wing seems to want perpetual banana republic style oligarchic military dictatorship with sprinkles of c)). This is due to China already combining various structural characteristics of a)-d) in one package. American version of Putinism is the other “softer” alternative to this. Neither are sustainable long term since they do not address the problem of exponential progress of technology consistently increasing planetary unemployment. There will also be the issue of China entering it’s “America in the 1930s” period of industrial depression and crisis of overproduction (which in turn stands to discredit that country briefly in the eyes of the world).

We can begin to see how process of elimination reduces the extent to which the current ideas on the market will be utilized. For the older generation, some elements of a) can be used to provide them peace of mind, continuity towards the end of life, and as marketing to politically sell rapid increase in state intervention. Then, for the younger generations, the mythical elements of b) combined with the edginess of d) may follow to demonstrate that rapid infrastructural progress really is occurring and to provide the future American regime with legitimacy (it’ll definitely be needing it). Transition period of the next 30 years will definitely be turbulent and interesting for all involved. We must consistently remain vigilant throughout the process to make sure the rich do not derail the experimentation into something truly frightening (which would make us wish for the old USA back).

Occupy Wall Street and Beyond

Occupy Wall Street is a protest movement against inequality, greed, corporate-government nexus and police brutality which broke out on September 17, 2011 in Zuccotti Park of Wall Street in New York. The international protest was named “Occupy Movement” and in other parts of the United States, the movement was called “Occupy Together”. There is no formal, explicitly stated leadership and the protestors are mostly young and unemployed. However, there are moderators, and as it happens in any society, movement or organization, leaders have emerged. The noise, complete lack of civility and violence in the movement has often been pointed out by the critics. Police brutality is rampant and many protestors were arrested.

The eruption of the protests

The protests broke out when Adbusters foundation in Canada urged people to peacefully occupy the Wall Street to protest against the growing disparity of wealth and the government’s rescue package to deal with the failures of the financial crisis through their email list. Slowly, many other groups joined in to organize the movement which was largely inspired by the strategy of the Arab Spring protests. The protests began when thousands of protestors marched through the streets. In a month, the demonstrators were tens of thousands in number and held protests in close to thousand cities across the world. In two months, the movement had spread to 2,609 towns and cities across the world. The protests slowly led to arrests and the police mistreatment of protesting women and journalists were controversial.

Goals of the movement

The stated goal of the movement was protesting the Wall Street for its collusion with the state. The explicit goal clashes with the views of many critics, but there is a clustering of many mutually incompatible political positions among the protestors. Though the leaders of the movement were very much against the media reading too much into their positions other than the protesting Wall Street, the protestors in other towns and cities were free to define their positions. Social and economic justice, better employment opportunities and working conditions, income equality, banking reforms and the elimination of corporate power are the demands which echo the most.

The role of the Wall Street

The protestors tend to believe that the Wall Street and corporate greed are largely responsible for the financial crisis and resulting stagnation. The protestors oppose bailouts, and suggest banking reforms and a better regulatory framework. Many economists argue that the stock market serves a healthy economic purpose, and that the Wall Street couldn’t have brought about the crisis by its own. They argue that the blame should be shared with the Federal Reserve System which issues cheap, artificial credit and distorts the market signals to investors and individual businessmen. The Federal Reserve System has been quite active for long to rescue financial firms which run into trouble, and to compel the taxpayers to bailout these companies.

The Political Slogan: “We are the 99%”

The protestors held a themed sign which read “We are the 99%”. It was in reference to the growing inequality between the majority of the population in the United States and an elite minority, which according to the protestors, arrogated to themselves, much of the wealth and political clout. The slogan emphasizes the notion that 1% of the population owns a significant part of the wealth in the United States. It is also argued that the income disparity has gone up slightly after the economic recession. Though the concentration of wealth is often overstated, there is much truth in it, and the sentiments echoed by the slogan are not far off the mark. It is true that an elite minority owns a significant part of the wealth in the United States and very few go to the extent of denying this. However, there is much criticism against the proposed solution of redistribution of wealth.

Is inequality growing?

The Gini index (or coefficient), a measure of income inequality tells us that income inequality has been growing dramatically in the recent past. However, other studies of the income distribution in the United States do not support the notion that income inequality has been rising in the present century. The Census Bureau measures suggest that the income inequality had gone up from 1960 till 1990, but have remained roughly constant in the last two decades.

Inequality is much less pronounced when we consider income of households instead of that of individuals. The size of the households has shrunk over time and, the number of households has been growing at a much faster pace than that of the population growth. Income inequality statistics which fails to take this into account can be highly misleading.

According to US Treasury department statistics, between 1975 and 1997 the wealthiest 20% in the United Stated raised their status from receiving 43.2% of the national income to receiving 49.4% of it. The poorest 20%, at the same time from receiving 4.4% went down the rung to receiving 3.6%. But economist Steve Horwitz points out that the people who formed the bottom 20% in 1975 are for the large part different from the ones who formed it in 1997. The poorest had almost always raised their financial status and moved out the bottom quintile in these two decided. Moreover, 4.4% of the total national income in 1975 is a much smaller figure when compared to 3.6% of the total national income in 1997. The absolute position of low income individuals have been consistently improving for long.

Causes of inequality

The poor often remains poor because success in the market is partly luck and often influenced by closeness with the state. However, the consensus in twin adoption studies suggest that intelligence and conscientiousness are the strongest predictors of financial success.

The arguments against egalitarianism

Many economists think that it is the wealth of a small minority which makes the superior living standards of the common man possible. They argue that much of the wealth of the extremely rich is in the form of means of production and not in the form of consumer goods which are available in the market. It is the concentrated wealth which allows big corporations to invest in physical infrastructure. Such huge capital investment results in much higher productivity, higher wages and lower prices which wouldn’t have been possible at all in a society of self-sufficient farms and small traders. The growth of individual fortunes of businessmen pales in comparison to the growth of big business enterprises.

Big business enterprises are almost without exception, corporations, and not owned by a single individual. The big business enterprises would have long lost its status if it hadn’t served the needs of the masses, as they always serve the common man though not always in a manner visible to the untrained mind.

However, these economists readily concede that in the present world, to a large extent, wealth acquired and sustained through special state privileges and by maintaining proximity with the government. The elimination of government privileges, protection and subsidies will make the path of riches open to everyone, and not just to an aristocracy of pull. The regulatory burden and progressive taxation, especially in developing countries like India makes it increasingly difficult for an upstart to accumulate capital and reach the state of big business.

Reaction to the protests

Unlike the reaction to the Tea party movement, the public response to the Occupy Wall Street protests is largely favourable. The response is positive from left-liberal media which claimed that the protests are a left-wing tea party. While unions predominantly agree to the goals of the protests, some disagree with the anarchistic structure of the protests which is strikingly different from the unions which are well organized and authoritarian in structure. Intellectuals and people in the entertainment industry are largely supportive, and some of them make public speeches at the protests. Many leaders of huge corporations think that the protests are much understandable, though they often have disagreements on the nature and goal of protests. Most think that things are not as good as they ought to be and that to say otherwise would be a complete denial of reality.

The libertarian ambivalence

Some libertarians and political commentators who are well to the right on the political spectrum looked down upon the protests as a pincer movement, a diabolical plot of the left to overthrow the very foundations of a capitalistic society. However, some of them believe that the protests are well justified, and that it is high time that crony capitalists are stripped of their special privileges and positions. Their disagreement is not so much on the stated goal as it is on the nature of the protests and proposed solutions. Many of them think that the protests should be peaceful, and should make a coherent and well thought out case against central banking in particular and government power in general. Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve and Ron Paul, the most libertarian politician from both the houses sympathized with the protests on some important levels, though for different reasons. While Ron Paul thought that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should be held up for criticism, Ben Bernanke dismissed the public outrage against the Fed as a misconception. However, both agreed that the economic situation of the country is dismal and people have reasons to find the policy response to it unsatisfactory.

The reaction of political leaders

Many political leaders across the world have expressed solidarity with the movement while some others have disagreed or have had mixed feelings about the same. The American President Barack Obama said that the protests express the deep frustrations of the American public with the aftermath of the financial crisis and the tendency of the powers-that-be to freeze the status quo. The Indian Prime minister Manmohan Singh said that there are reasons why people are protesting and that the system should be willing to honestly address these problems. The Former United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair was among the few who strongly disagreed with the protests.

Conclusion

The performance of the world economies would have been better if it hadn’t been for panics and recessions which occasionally strike them. The public outrage against corporatism, inequality and the failures of central bank monetary management is understandable, but should be directed towards the real culprits.

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